基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Ephemeral rollover points and clinothem evolution in the modern Po Delta based on repeated bathymetric surveys

Reconstructions of ancient delta systems rely typically on a two-dimensional (2D) view of prograding clinothems but may miss their three-dimensional (3D) stratigraphic complexity which can, instead, be best documented on modern delta systems by integrating high-resolution geophysical data, historical cartography, core data and geomorphological reconstructions offshore. We quantitatively compare three precisely positioned, high-resolution multi-beam bathymetry maps in the delta front and pro delta sectors (0.3 to 10 m water depth) of Po di Pila, the most active of the modern Po Delta five branches. By investigating the detailed morphology of the prograding modern Po Delta, we shed new light on the mechanisms that control the topset to foreset transition in clinothems and show the temporal and spatial complexity of a delta and its pro delta slope, under the impact of oceanographic processes. This study documents the ephemeral nature of the rollover point at the transition between sandy topset (fluvial, delta plain to mouth-bar) and muddy seaward-dipping foreset deposits advancing, in this case, in >20 m of water depth. Three multibeam surveys, acquired between 2013 and 2016, document the complexity in space and time of the topset and foreset regions and their related morphology, a diagnostic feature that could not be appreciated using solely 2D, even very high-resolution, seismic profiles. In addition, the comparison of bathymetric surveys gathered with one-year lapses shows the migration of subaqueous sand dunes on the clinothem topset, the formation of ephemeral cut-and-fill features at the rollover point (few m below mean sea level), the presence of collapse depressions derived by sagging of sediments and fluid expulsion (possibly induced by storm waves) on the foreset, and splays of sand likely reflecting gravity flows on the lower foreset. Though the modern Po Delta is anthropogenic in many respects, its subaqueous clinothem can be studied as a scale model for ancient clinothems that are less resolved geometrically and far less constrained chronologically.     

Evaluating soil water routing approaches in watershed-scale,ecohydrologic modelling

Soil water dynamics are central in linking and regulating natural cycles in ecohydrology, however, mathematical representation of soil water processes in models is challenging given the complexity of these interactions. To assess the impacts of soil water simulation approaches on various model outputs, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was modified to accommodate an alternative soil water percolation method and tested at two geographically and climatically distinct, instrumented watersheds in the United States. Soil water was evaluated at the site scale via measured observations, and hydrologic and biophysical outputs were analysed at the watershed scale. Results demonstrated an improved Kling–Gupta Efficiency of up to 0.3 and a reduction in percent bias from 5 to 25% at the site scale, when soil water percolation was changed from a threshold, bucket-based approach to an alternative approach based on variable hydraulic conductivity. The primary difference between the approaches was attributed to the ability to simulate soil water content above field capacity for successive days; however, regardless of the approach, a lack of site-specific characterization of soil properties by the soils database at the site scale was found to severely limit the analysis. Differences in approach led to a regime shift in percolation from a few, high magnitude events to frequent, low magnitude events. At the watershed scale, the variable hydraulic conductivity-based approach reduced average annual percolation by 20–50 mm, directly impacting the water balance and subsequently biophysical predictions. For instance, annual denitrification increased by 14–24 kg/ha for the new approach. Overall, the study demonstrates the need for continued efforts to enhance soil water model representation for improving biophysical process simulations.     

载波/多普勒平滑伪距在Android手机中的定位实现

针对Android手机GNSS伪距定位精度较低的问题，利用手机端观测信息，通过载波相位/多普勒平滑伪距改善手机端伪距观测值的质量，从而达到提高定位精度的效果。首先给出了Android手机GNSS原始观测量的获取方法，然后推导了载波相位平滑伪距和多普勒平滑伪距算法模型，并设计合理有效的试验对算法的精度进行评定。试验结果表明：在手机端静态定位中载波相位和多普勒平滑算法均可提高原始伪距的定位精度，且多普勒平滑算法表现更优；在手机端动态定位中多普勒平滑算法可获得比原始伪距更优的定位精度，但是载波相位平滑算法较原始伪距更差；由于硬件的制约手机端周跳和信号失锁严重，占比超过50%，载波相位在手机端的可用性较低；多普勒平滑算法的最优平滑时间常数小于等于10 s，具有实时动态定位的巨大潜力。     

Modelling the poroelastoplastic behaviour of soils subjected to internal erosion by suffusion

Granular soils subjected to seepage flow may suffer suffusion, ie, a selective internal erosion. Extending the classical approach of poromechanics, we deduce a new form of the Clausius-Duhem inequality accounting for dissipation due to suffusion, and we deduce restrictions on the constitutive laws of the soil. We suggest (a) a possible coupling between the seepage forces and the suffusion kinetics and (b) an extension of an existing elastoplastic model for the skeleton mechanical behaviour. Numerical integrations of the elastoplastic model are carried out under drained axisymmetric triaxial and oedometric conditions. As a result, we prove that the extended model is able to qualitatively reproduce the suffusion induced strains and the strength reduction experimentally observed. Predictions on the oedometric behaviour of suffusive soils are also provided.     

自然和自然贡献情景模型研究综述

本文回顾了自然和自然贡献情景模型发展的背景、历史和内容,概括总结了自然和自然贡献情景模型的发展进程以及联合国生物多样性与生态系统服务政府间科学—政策平台(IPBES)情景模型的概念框架,讨论了自然和自然贡献情景模型存在的问题和发展方向。为了在全球层面解决现有综合集成模型存在的问题,根据地球表层建模基本定理和生态环境曲面建模基本定理,提出了具有中国原创特点的自然与自然贡献情景模型概念框架。     

Stochastic modelling of groundwater flow and solute transport in aquifers

This paper presents an introductory overview of recently developed stochastic theories for tackling spatial variability problems in predicting groundwater flow and solute transport. Advantages and limitations of the theories are discussed. Lastly, strategies based on the stochastic approaches to predict solute transport in aquifers are recommended.     

Dust supply from river floodplains: the case of the lower Huang He (Yellow River) recorded in a loess–palaeosol sequence from the Mangshan Plateau

The Mangshan Plateau is located on the south bank of the Huang He (Yellow River) just west of the city of Zhengzhou, well outside the Loess Plateau in central China. Mixing models of the grain‐size data indicate that the loess deposits are mixtures of three loess components. Comparison of the mixing model with existing models established for a series of loess–palaeosol sequences from the Loess Plateau indicates that the Mangshan loess has been supplied from a proximal dust source, the Huang He floodplain, during major dust outbreaks. The high accumulation rates, the composition of the loess components, and especially the high proportions of a sandy loess component support this. Owing to the exceptionally high accumulation rates, the Mangshan grain size, magnetic susceptibility and carbonate records provide a high‐resolution archive of environmental and climate change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of micropolar plasticity to post failure analysis in geomechanics

A micropolar elastoplastic model for soils is formulated and a series of finite element analyses are employed to demonstrate the use of a micropolar continuum in overcoming the numerical difficulties encountered in application of finite element method in standard Cauchy–Boltzmann continuum. Three examples of failure analysis involving a deep excavation, shallow foundation, and a retaining wall are presented. In all these cases, it is observed that the length scale introduced in the polar continuum regularizes the incremental boundary value problem and allows the numerical simulation to be continued until a clear collapse mechanism is achieved. The issue of grain size effect is also discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.